Evo 3 coming in 2022 (maybe). What will this mean for the Evo 2?

[AstroNoot]

So, I know for a fact i won't get certain answers from any of you because you're not oracles and you can't guess the future, but considering Autel's history, what do you think will happen when the Evo 3 launches?

In an interview with Ken Heron, Maxwell Lee, the General Manager of Autel Robotics confirmed that the Evo 3 may be coming in 2022.
Autel has a really bad history of discontinuing support for their drones, rather abruptly, both in the software department but also in the hardware department, specifically batteries.

However, the Evo 2 series forked into more products that use roughly the same hardware and software (E2Enterprise, E2Thermal, the v2(considered very new) ), and I was wondering if this would positively affect the "long time" support of the Evo 2?

Do you think the Evo 2 consumer series will benefit from a longer period of software updates and battery availability just because the enterprise counterparts use the same hardware?

 

[PingSpike]

You know full well what's gonna happen to the 2 when the 3 is released

 

[jzobel]

And what do you think the odds are the Evo 3 will be released bug free and even remotely when they say it will be? Evo 2 is just getting around to be useable.

 

[herein2021]

So, I know for a fact i won't get certain answers from any of you because you're not oracles and you can't guess the future, but considering Autel's history, what do you think will happen when the Evo 3 launches?

In an interview with Ken Heron, Maxwell Lee, the General Manager of Autel Robotics confirmed that the Evo 3 may be coming in 2022.
Autel has a really bad history of discontinuing support for their drones, rather abruptly, both in the software department but also in the hardware department, specifically batteries.

However, the Evo 2 series forked into more products that use roughly the same hardware and software (E2Enterprise, E2Thermal, the v2(considered very new) ), and I was wondering if this would positively affect the "long time" support of the Evo 2?

Do you think the Evo 2 consumer series will benefit from a longer period of software updates and battery availability just because the enterprise counterparts use the same hardware?

A wise person once said "History Tends to Repeat Itself".......need I say more? The best news we could get for the EVO 3 would be that it uses the same batteries as the EVO II, but in the history of drones has this ever happened which is ironic because for my professional cameras the battery form factor hasn't changed for many generations of camera bodies. Batteries are a major cash cow for drone makers.

 

[aebiv]

A wise person once said "History Tends to Repeat Itself".......need I say more? The best news we could get for the EVO 3 would be that it uses the same batteries as the EVO II, but in the history of drones has this ever happened which is ironic because for my professional cameras the battery form factor hasn't changed for many generations of camera bodies. Batteries are a major cash cow for drone makers.

FIMI drones I think have been using the same batteries for awhile. In fact, I believe their "flagship" drone has kept the same chassis now for 3 generations, with just internal (and camera) updates.

Never flown one mind you, but I find them interesting.

 

[Brock Inspector]

Whether or not Autel remains in the US marketplace with a professional offering is what hangs in the balance. Unless RID is declared unconstitutional or scrapped, every manufacturer who intends to stay cannot sell drones without RID (baked into the design that cannot be disabled, not just a tack-on module) beyond Sep 15th of this year. There is nothing inherently wrong with the Evo II airframe. It's been upgraded with the Enterprise versions having longer carbon fiber arms and bigger motors swinging larger props-- while using the same battery and ESCs. My money is on their continuation of the Enterprise branch or fork, with RID, for the pro aspect of the business. Be slick if they can source a non-ZTE software defined radio chipset that satisfies RID and can bind with two devices at once (which the current v.2 hardware SDR cannot do) so that a Live Deck II is possible once more. A big let down presently for SAR and first responder organizations for the v.2 AE2 (and especially the Enterprise) is that there's no Live Deck solution.
With that minor tweak, Autel could dominate the enterprise niche and whatever they do regarding the AE3--in some other form factor, perhaps?-- won't matter so much. The Evo Lite+ with the 6K camera does everything most hobbyists need from the AE2 Pro from now until Sep when it will have to be iterated, itself, into a product containing baked-in RID

 

[aebiv]

Fascinating, I didn't realize the new radio chips didn't allow the dual accessory/controller.

But yes, I think you're right regarding where things are heading. I'd expect the EVO III to move more upmarket/professional with the introduction of the Lite and Nano series.

I think they could actually do that better than DJI has done with the Mavic 3 as well, as DJI pushed the Mavic 3 into the Fly app which has no mission/mapping capabilities.

 

[Brock Inspector]

DJI had such market dominance until the AE2 came along, that little to no third-party software exists for mapping using anything but DJI hardware. Autel might leverage the present Mavic 3 discontent by opening up to software developers with an SDK for any updated Enterprise version (if they're not doing so already)

 

[kenautelevo2pro]

i agree if rid survives and you don't have built-in rid functions, you're toast. bolt on solutions will ultimately prove to be sub-optimal and thus impractical.

 

[Brock Inspector]

i agree if rid survives and you don't have built-in rid functions, you're toast. bolt on solutions will ultimately prove to be sub-optimal and thus impractical.

Bolt on options aren't an option for anyone but end-users. Manufacturers don't get a pass with them, in fact are required to have Standard RID baked in such that it can't be disabled for all sUAS aircraft over 249g sold after Sept 15, 2022 in the US

 

[kenautelevo2pro]

Bolt on options aren't an option for anyone but end-users. Manufacturers don't get a pass with them, in fact are required to have Standard RID baked in such that it can't be disabled for all sUAS aircraft over 249g sold after Sept 15, 2022 in the US

lol, yeah that's never going to fly
i predict the compliance dates will slip

 

[robport]

I don't see how that date is possible. There has been no standardization (at least publicly) of anything remote ID yet, including that stupid app giving everyone our positions. You can't just toss out an obtuse requirement to a bunch of competing companies and expect them to voluntarily create something with the same communication protocols, methods, compatible hardware and shared data formats that everyone will adhere to. Unless the FAA publicly farms out the monitoring to one company or takes control of the design of the whole system, I don't see where it can happen anytime soon (government competition takes a while, usually more than one year, especially with all the protests). If that happens, we will be charged for the monitoring which they don't just have the legal authorization to do without going back to Congress. I don't believe it was authorized in the law.

 

[Brock Inspector]

In the US, we fly under the FAA rules, which right now = 2021 Final Rule as it stands. It decrees Sep 15, 2022 compliance for manufacturers to have built in, non-switchable Standard RID for all sUAS over 249g in all products sold afterwards. It's not a good bet for manufacturers to assume that the date will slip or the rule will be rescinded. End users won't have to install tack on modules for another year beyond. Autel's not prematurely releasing the AE3 seems a wise move if it means they don't have to iterate once again before Standard RID is fully spec'd out

 

[gschulzuio]

In the US, we fly under the FAA rules, which right now = 2021 Final Rule as it stands. It decrees Sep 15, 2022 compliance for manufacturers to have built in, non-switchable Standard RID for all sUAS over 249g in all products sold afterwards. It's not a good bet for manufacturers to assume that the date will slip or the rule will be rescinded. End users won't have to install tack on modules for another year beyond. Autel's not prematurely releasing the AE3 seems a wise move if it means they don't have to iterate once again before Standard RID is fully spec'd out

Something to keep in mind is in the 2021 final rule as published, congress laid out what manufactures had to be compliant with and when, however they did not lay out exactly what the details of those compliance items (e.g. specifications, protocol, command sets, etc) were leaving that to industry and others to work out details (which they are doing now).

What congress did do as part of the final rule which is then managed by the FAA is to have a process of how manufactures will make a Declaration of Compliance (DOC), and also a Means of Compliance (MOC). The FAA can approve an MOC submitted by a third party or others as a means of meeting the RID (and OOP) requirements, then manufactures or others can issue a DOC of they will meet requirements based on a previous accepted MOC.

Here are current MOCs
Note, its still early in process, as of 1/8/22 no RID MOCs yet, one OOP MOC via VA Tech.
Here are current DOCs
Note, as 1/8/22 there are no RID/OOP DOCs yet, its still early in the process.

What to keep an eye on are the above MOC and DOC lists which will reveal how manufactures make their DOC based on a given MOC. The DOCs should for example show how DJI or Autel or others will for a given product achieve their compliance, and, the MOC will be the method by which they achieve that (e.g. simple fw/sw update, some other means, brand new product, new version of an existing product, service mod of existing, lawsuit or other wave a magic wand technique, etc).

 

[GeoDrone SRL]

Well...This is a little silly from my side, but what do you expect when you buy a drone? 10 years usage?
The usable time for it is between 3-5 years...then the tech is obsolete...
Now...related to Evo 2 series...as the E2E is pushed up, we have plenty of reasons to believe that we will have batteries for a longer time.
I would ask you how about tablets...How many of you started to yell at a tablet producer that is obsolete after 2 years...or 3...Because I needed to change my tabs each 2 years to face the needs from DJI Fly and Autel Explorer...

I also would ask you: Why did you brought a drone? For personal purposes or for business? Because for personal purpose will work next 3 years for sure...For business you will move to next one ASAP, in order to keep a high PRO level, also the drone paid itself from usage in 2-3 months, so is no loss here.

I see a lot of users with older drones complaining...Guys, in Germany people sells the cars after around 2-3 years in order to have all time new tech...And we talk about cars of thousands euro, not drones...Start doing the same...You have 2 years old drone? Sell it, move forward...The person that is buying it is assuming that will use it shorter time, as it pays a lot less than for a new one...

So my humble opinion:
WHEN YOU START DANCING IN THIS SECTOR, BE PREPARED TO KEEP DANCING...UPGRADE YOUR DRONE EACH 1-2 YEARS, EVEN IF YOU LOOSE 1/2 PRICE PAID, THAT DRONE PAID ITSELF AND PRODUCED $$$...

As for Evo 3:
I am pretty sure that we will not see it until January 2023...Will need to be designed in order to face new regulations both US and EU and as this regulations are not yet final, no sane producer will launch a new drone this year and see that is prohibited next year...So I would be cautious related to time to release E3....

 

[Saladshooter]

As for Evo 3:
I am pretty sure that we will not see it until January 2023...Will need to be designed in order to face new regulations both US and EU and as this regulations are not yet final, no sane producer will launch a new drone this year and see that is prohibited next year...So I would be cautious related to time to release E3....

Autel general manager Maxwell Lee said in a recent interview that the EVO 3 leaked very early (image and tentative specs appeared online). He said that we might see the EVO 3 late this year. To me, this confirms that the earliest we would see an EVO 3 is right about when you are saying..... It would be nice to have it for Christmas but not if its going to come half baked. There has been enough of that recently with the Mavic 3, Nano, Lite, Zino Mini, Evolve 2, etc.

Interestingly, he has also said the camera and electronics in the Lite+ series are actually more advanced at this point. They are actually holding it back with the limited software in the new Sky App.

It will be very exciting to see whet Autel can do with a 4/3 sensor.... their lowlight capability and Moonlight algorithms in the Nano+, Lite, Lite+ are beating DJI's larger sensors already.

 

[AstroNoot]

Well...This is a little silly from my side, but what do you expect when you buy a drone? 10 years usage?
The usable time for it is between 3-5 years...then the tech is obsolete...
Now...related to Evo 2 series...as the E2E is pushed up, we have plenty of reasons to believe that we will have batteries for a longer time.
I would ask you how about tablets...How many of you started to yell at a tablet producer that is obsolete after 2 years...or 3...Because I needed to change my tabs each 2 years to face the needs from DJI Fly and Autel Explorer...

I also would ask you: Why did you brought a drone? For personal purposes or for business? Because for personal purpose will work next 3 years for sure...For business you will move to next one ASAP, in order to keep a high PRO level, also the drone paid itself from usage in 2-3 months, so is no loss here.

I see a lot of users with older drones complaining...Guys, in Germany people sells the cars after around 2-3 years in order to have all time new tech...And we talk about cars of thousands euro, not drones...Start doing the same...You have 2 years old drone? Sell it, move forward...The person that is buying it is assuming that will use it shorter time, as it pays a lot less than for a new one...

So my humble opinion:
WHEN YOU START DANCING IN THIS SECTOR, BE PREPARED TO KEEP DANCING...UPGRADE YOUR DRONE EACH 1-2 YEARS, EVEN IF YOU LOOSE 1/2 PRICE PAID, THAT DRONE PAID ITSELF AND PRODUCED $$$...

As for Evo 3:
I am pretty sure that we will not see it until January 2023...Will need to be designed in order to face new regulations both US and EU and as this regulations are not yet final, no sane producer will launch a new drone this year and see that is prohibited next year...So I would be cautious related to time to release E3....

Mai nou nu înseamnă tot timpul " mai bun". E diferență între "obsolete" și "planned obsolescence"

Newer hardware doesn't necessarily mean the drone is better.

I understand why spare parts wouldn't be manufactured anymore after the Evo 3 launches, but batteries need to be manufactured for a longer period of time.

Otherwise, you're just forced to buy the next drone in the series, just because you can't find any batteries on the market. This is the situation the Evo 1 owners are in, now. No one would give a **** if you'd be able to re-cell the batteries, but they're "smart".

Incremental upgrades are stupid, even for an Enterprise user, like you. Even if you get your money back with the money you use on your new drone, it's still stupid. It still counts as wasted money.

You should upgrade your fleet when you decide that your drones can no longer fulfil your and your customer's request. Not when the manufacturer decides to kill the previous series because they added a *slightly* bigger sensor or they did a design change.

 

[Saladshooter]

No one would give a **** if you'd be able to re-cell the batteries, but they're "smart".

This is the downfall of just about every drone..... I have my eyes on an expensive drone from a small company. I believe in their equipment but am afraid they will go out of business and leave me with a multi-thousand dollar brick.

 

[gschulzuio]

This is the downfall of just about every drone..... I have my eyes on an expensive drone from a small company. I believe in their equipment but am afraid they will go out of business and leave me with a multi-thousand dollar brick.

Hmm, would that be S***o ?

 

[Saladshooter]

Hmm, would that be S***o ?

No, I have a Skydio that I enjoy if I'm reading you right.

Its the XDynamics Evolve 2...... Its too new and buggy to even consider buying yet. I have been impatiently waiting for more than the two YouTubers who got sent ones post footage and reviews. I think they are just starting to ship.