My suggestion since you live in an area of such clear water and you can pretty much pinpoint the search area in more or less a 50 meter radius based on GPS coords and the map view, get your dive buddies out there right away and run a search pattern. Doesn't appear to be very deep water either and that submerged structure is a key element to establish a reference point. If you can find the drone you can retrieve the "Black Box", i.e. the SD card and review the onboard video recording to see just what may have brought the bird down. The SD chips are waterproof so if you can find that data the mystery could be solved or at least eliminate a solid object collision as the reason.
The rapid descending of altitude during the last few seconds....were you causing that from your controls by deliberately dropping altitude? Or were you flying at a constant altitude for the leg back home? At that angle and speed of descent it almost appears it took a nose dive. Perhaps a blade failure which would be fatal and would be evidence if you find the drone and recover the chip.
[EDIT:] Just converted your 19.4m/s to mph...you were doing 43 miles per hour and at a steep angle of attack on descent at that speed and only 14m above sea level your drone would travel that 14 vertical meters in less than one second straight down. Put the bird on a descent path of even 45° and it would only take one second to cover that distance to the water. I can fine tune my ball park figures here using the coordinates for actual travel distance tied to altitude change. But it seems to be a kamikaze dive.
Well hell, while I am on the theoretical possibilities, at 43 miles per hour and a steep dive and maybe against a buffeting headwind I suspect in a rare but not impossible event one of your front two motor arms folded to the rear and brought the bird down. The arms may have reached their "break point" in wind resistance and one or both folded. But recovering the drone would not verify this was the true cause since the impact with the water most likely would fold the arms at that time.
I am a diver and always have 3 tanks of air in the garage. I guess since I too will be frequently filming activities along and over lakes, rivers, and ocean that equipment may come in handy for my own needs some day. I hope not.